According to Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, the country is currently in a state of war. Most recently, a state of emergency was declared after the leader of one of the country's two largest gangs escaped from prison. The next day, members of that gang stormed a TC Television news program with live footage of hostage-taking and violence to make their demands known.
These events were just part of a series of shocking acts of violence that took place throughout the month. Following this, an under-organized campaign similar to the actions of the Mexican drug cartels of the mid-2010s or worse, armed men attacked hospitals, businesses and universities. Prisons were attacked, riots spread, bombs exploded, and police officers and prison staff were kidnapped and killed. At least 10 people, including police officers, were killed by thugs, and more than a hundred prison staff were taken hostage.
This sudden turn to violence seems unfathomable for Ecuador, a high-income country of 18 million people. In the past, Ecuador was considered an «island of peace» in a volatile region, but that image has changed.
These events were just part of a series of shocking acts of violence that took place throughout the month. Following this, an under-organized campaign similar to the actions of the Mexican drug cartels of the mid-2010s or worse, armed men attacked hospitals, businesses and universities. Prisons were attacked, riots spread, bombs exploded, and police officers and prison staff were kidnapped and killed. At least 10 people, including police officers, were killed by thugs, and more than a hundred prison staff were taken hostage.
This sudden turn to violence seems unfathomable for Ecuador, a high-income country of 18 million people. In the past, Ecuador was considered an «island of peace» in a volatile region, but that image has changed.
While there are factors that have accelerated the increase in crime in recent years, experts say the roots of the problem run deep. Ecuador's security crisis is the result of years of gang impunity, the influence of transnational criminal groups, changes in global cocaine consumption and, above all, systematic institutional corruption.
This means that even with President Noboa's promised military measures, this chaos will not be resolved overnight.
How did an «island of peace» turn into a field of war?
For years, Ecuador's stability and security made it unique from neighboring Peru and Colombia, the world's largest cocaine producers. Situated between these two countries, Ecuador has often acted as a transit point for drugs, but has not suffered from the violence and armed conflict that has torn its neighbors apart.
In the 1990s, drug control in Ecuador belonged to the Revolutionary Armies of Colombia (FARC), a Marxist guerrilla group that has long fought against the Colombian government. According to Will Freeman, an expert on Latin America, the situation was stable as there was no significant competition and clashes with the Ecuadorian government.
However, in 2016, the FARC demobilized, which created a power vacuum in northern Ecuador. At the same time, the demand for cocaine began to shift: a decline in the US and an increase in Europe led to increased counter-banding through the ports. Guayaquil on the Pacific coast became the epicenter of the crisis as it became a key point for smuggling cocaine into Europe due to increased seizures of the drug in the region.
This shared power vacuum and the opportunity for massive drug trafficking allowed foreign groups, such as Mexican cartels and Venezuelan gangs, to become more involved in Ecuador's drug trade. Even the Albanian mafia, according to Freeman, took advantage of the FARC's demobilization and came to Guayaquil to set up a presence there in the 2010s.
For a long time, Ecuador's two largest gangs, Los Lobos and Los Choneros, maintained relative peace, but the assassinations of their leaders in 2020 triggered a power struggle. Since then, the groups have quickly splintered into factions vying for control of territories, especially Guayaquil.
Experts say foreign criminal groups are backing Ecuadorian gangs, further fueling the conflict for influence. Los Lobos is believed to be linked to the New Generation Cartel of Jalisco, while Los Choneros may be allied with the Sinaloa Cartel. The divided factions are now embroiled in intense competition for control of internal markets and trafficking routes, which only intensifies the cycle of violence.
Ecuador has long had one of the lowest homicide rates in the region, but since 2018, the murder rate has more than quadrupled. Explosions, murders and shootings are occurring. In 2022, when decapitated bodies were found hanging from a bridge in the city of Esmeraldas, some analysts concluded that the kind of violence inherent in cartels that terrorized Mexican cities like Juarez in the 2000s had found a new home in Ecuador. Last year, a presidential candidate who was reportedly threatened by local affiliates of the Sinaloa cartel was assassinated.
For a long time, Ecuador's two largest gangs, Los Lobos and Los Choneros, maintained relative peace, but the assassinations of their leaders in 2020 triggered a power struggle. Since then, the groups have quickly splintered into factions vying for control of territories, especially Guayaquil.
Experts say foreign criminal groups are backing Ecuadorian gangs, further fueling the conflict for influence. Los Lobos is believed to be linked to the New Generation Cartel of Jalisco, while Los Choneros may be allied with the Sinaloa Cartel. The divided factions are now embroiled in intense competition for control of internal markets and trafficking routes, which only intensifies the cycle of violence.
Ecuador has long had one of the lowest homicide rates in the region, but since 2018, the murder rate has more than quadrupled. Explosions, murders and shootings are occurring. In 2022, when decapitated bodies were found hanging from a bridge in the city of Esmeraldas, some analysts concluded that the kind of violence inherent in cartels that terrorized Mexican cities like Juarez in the 2000s had found a new home in Ecuador. Last year, a presidential candidate who was reportedly threatened by local affiliates of the Sinaloa cartel was assassinated.
Although former president Guillermo Lasso tried to combat the gangs by increasing police numbers and deploying armed forces, this failed to stop the violence. Between 2022 and 2023, Ecuador's homicide rate nearly doubled.
Experts and former local officials say the government has not only failed to stop the violence, but may even be encouraging it.
State actors facilitate the activities of organized crime, as evidenced by the attorney general's raids on the homes of judges, prosecutors and police last month. The raids resulted in the detention of dozens of officials with ties to criminal organizations, including a former drug lord and the president of the judicial council. The state and law enforcement agencies cannot effectively control crime and violence because of their ties to organized crime in the country.
Recent events only confirm this fact. Experts emphasize that the jailbreak, which was the reason for the head of government to declare an emergency, came too easily. Thief-in-law Fito was released on the same day he was to be transferred to another, more heavily guarded prison. Then the next day, the leader of the Los Lobos gang disappeared from prison, which also caused bewilderment.
Experts and former local officials say the government has not only failed to stop the violence, but may even be encouraging it.
State actors facilitate the activities of organized crime, as evidenced by the attorney general's raids on the homes of judges, prosecutors and police last month. The raids resulted in the detention of dozens of officials with ties to criminal organizations, including a former drug lord and the president of the judicial council. The state and law enforcement agencies cannot effectively control crime and violence because of their ties to organized crime in the country.
Recent events only confirm this fact. Experts emphasize that the jailbreak, which was the reason for the head of government to declare an emergency, came too easily. Thief-in-law Fito was released on the same day he was to be transferred to another, more heavily guarded prison. Then the next day, the leader of the Los Lobos gang disappeared from prison, which also caused bewilderment.
Daniela Chacon, a former vice mayor of Quito and city councilwoman, points out that the cartels have de facto control of the prisons. She believes that recent events show that the organizations that have long governed the country continue to demonstrate their power and control.
How is the situation in Ecuador changing?
On January 9 of this year, Noboa declared that Ecuador was experiencing an «internal armed conflict». He issued a decree declaring over 20 gangs as terrorist groups and instructing the country's armed forces to «neutralize»them.
While Noboa declared the fight, Chacon said the military would not be able to eradicate institutional corruption, warning, «A gun fight will only be effective when you are facing organizations with more financial resources, more power and the ability to act more swiftly than the state».
«The people of Ecuador are rightfully demanding an effective state and its intervention to end the violence and restore the sense of peace and security that most Ecuadorians have had» — notes John Walsh, drug policy manager at the Washington Office of Latin American Counternarcotics.
But he warns that military reinforcement of Ecuador's law enforcement could lead to new security threats. Walsh says fighting organized crime using military methods that circumvent the law may bring short-term victories, but ultimately poses a threat to anyone seeking to destroy and co-opt the state.
How is the situation in Ecuador changing?
On January 9 of this year, Noboa declared that Ecuador was experiencing an «internal armed conflict». He issued a decree declaring over 20 gangs as terrorist groups and instructing the country's armed forces to «neutralize»them.
While Noboa declared the fight, Chacon said the military would not be able to eradicate institutional corruption, warning, «A gun fight will only be effective when you are facing organizations with more financial resources, more power and the ability to act more swiftly than the state».
«The people of Ecuador are rightfully demanding an effective state and its intervention to end the violence and restore the sense of peace and security that most Ecuadorians have had» — notes John Walsh, drug policy manager at the Washington Office of Latin American Counternarcotics.
But he warns that military reinforcement of Ecuador's law enforcement could lead to new security threats. Walsh says fighting organized crime using military methods that circumvent the law may bring short-term victories, but ultimately poses a threat to anyone seeking to destroy and co-opt the state.
Noboa has been outspoken about his admiration for Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, promising to build huge prisons modeled after Bukele's. Bukele was elected to office in 2019 with a promise to end the epidemic of gang violence that led to El Salvador once having the highest murder rate in the world. This was achieved mostly through mass arrests that made him popular locally, though he was also criticized for massive human rights abuses.
The state of emergency imposed by Noboa, which restricts civil liberties, also seems at odds with Bukele's security policies: the president of El Salvador has extended a similar state of emergency from March 2022.
https://www.wola.org/2023/03/year-suspended-civil-liberties-el-salvador-when-exception-becomes-rule/
Walsh also points to the failure of military approaches in Colombia and Mexico, warning that «military operations increase the risk for civilians to be caught in the firing zone as both sides — state and non-state actors — seek to escalate the conflict».
The state of emergency imposed by Noboa, which restricts civil liberties, also seems at odds with Bukele's security policies: the president of El Salvador has extended a similar state of emergency from March 2022.
https://www.wola.org/2023/03/year-suspended-civil-liberties-el-salvador-when-exception-becomes-rule/
Walsh also points to the failure of military approaches in Colombia and Mexico, warning that «military operations increase the risk for civilians to be caught in the firing zone as both sides — state and non-state actors — seek to escalate the conflict».
Walsh sees the crisis in Ecuador as not only a regional but also an international problem, closely linked to the global cocaine market. The country is already undergoing major changes. Recent violence and shows of force by drug gangs show that Ecuador has become a new hotspot for violence and conflict between drug cartels.
The former vice mayor of Quito, Chacon, notes that violence is «becoming commonplace» and it seems that the situation will not improve. Noboa's statement about «internal armed conflict» points to a militarized approach that has failed in Mexico and Colombia. Experts believe that systemic corruption and the infiltration of gangs into state structures, which enables them to accumulate power, must first be addressed.
Walsh argues that Ecuador needs a new regional approach that takes into account the international nature of the drug trade to prevent further escalation of the violence that has already undermined the stability of its neighbors. He emphasizes that drug prohibition must also be reconsidered.
He warns that the crisis in Ecuador could spread and requires a new approach that differs from the failed strategies of the past. There needs to be a change in thinking and raise doubts about the effectiveness of drug prohibition, which only promotes organized crime and corruption.
The former vice mayor of Quito, Chacon, notes that violence is «becoming commonplace» and it seems that the situation will not improve. Noboa's statement about «internal armed conflict» points to a militarized approach that has failed in Mexico and Colombia. Experts believe that systemic corruption and the infiltration of gangs into state structures, which enables them to accumulate power, must first be addressed.
Walsh argues that Ecuador needs a new regional approach that takes into account the international nature of the drug trade to prevent further escalation of the violence that has already undermined the stability of its neighbors. He emphasizes that drug prohibition must also be reconsidered.
He warns that the crisis in Ecuador could spread and requires a new approach that differs from the failed strategies of the past. There needs to be a change in thinking and raise doubts about the effectiveness of drug prohibition, which only promotes organized crime and corruption.
View attachment 3AJ8buFzgS.jpg
A subsequent timeline of events
On March 8, President Noboa extended the state of emergency for thirty days. The murder rate was halved from 24 killings per day to 12, and more than 11,700 people have been arrested since the beginning of the conflict. On March 16, El País newspaper reported that the government was creating genetic profiles of prisoners to make it easier to identify deaths in cases of prison riots and identity theft. On March 24, Brigitte Garcia, mayor of San Vicente, was found dead with gunshot wounds in her car in Manabí province along with her employee Jairo Loor. The killer has not been caught.
On March 8, President Noboa extended the state of emergency for thirty days. The murder rate was halved from 24 killings per day to 12, and more than 11,700 people have been arrested since the beginning of the conflict. On March 16, El País newspaper reported that the government was creating genetic profiles of prisoners to make it easier to identify deaths in cases of prison riots and identity theft. On March 24, Brigitte Garcia, mayor of San Vicente, was found dead with gunshot wounds in her car in Manabí province along with her employee Jairo Loor. The killer has not been caught.
On March 28, three prisoners were killed and six others injured in a riot at Prison 8 in Guayaquil. Eleven people were kidnapped in Manabí province. Five of them were later found murdered execution style, while the remaining six, including five children, were released. The next day, two suspects were released. Police said the victims may have been tourists involved in a drug dispute.
https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-violence-shootings-82895468cbeafd6246a59840a35741cd
On March 31, nine people were killed and ten others were wounded after gunmen opened fire on a group of people exercising on Guasmo Street, a neighborhood of Guayaquil. On April 17, José Sánchez, mayor of Camilo Ponce Enríquez, Asuay province, was shot dead, and on April 19, Jorge Maldonado, mayor of Portovelo, El Oro province, was shot dead. On May 11, eight people were killed in a shooting at a birthday party bar in Chanduay, Santa Elena province.