Cocaine trafficking to North America continues to increase.
In the Americas, the primary cocaine trafficking flow continues to be from Colombia to North America, in particular the United States. Analysis of cocaine seizure samples in the United States suggests that, in 2019, 87 per cent of that cocaine originated in Colombia and 9 per cent in Peru. Less than 1 per cent of the cocaine found on the United States market is smuggled directly; the bulk transits a number of countries before reaching the United States.
According to United States authorities, cocaine trafficking to North America typically starts in the Andean countries, with cocaine mostly departing from Colombia and Ecuador via the eastern Pacific route, which is estimated to account for 74 per cent of all cocaine smuggled to North America. This is followed by the western Carib-bean route (16 per cent), which starts from Colombia. The third trafficking route is the Caribbean route (along which 8 per cent of cocaine seized in North America is trafficked), which starts from both Colombia and Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of).
The quantities of cocaine seized along the drug trafficking routes from the Andean countries to North America, that is, the amount of cocaine seized in Central America, the Caribbean and North America, rose by more than 40 per cent over the period 2015–2019, including by 7 per cent from 2018 to 2019. The largest growth along this route was reported in Central America, where the quantities of cocaine seized increased by 60 per cent over the period 2015–2019, which is possibly a reflection of an increasing number of shipments of cocaine transiting Central America on the way to Mexico. By contrast, the quantities of cocaine seized in the Caribbean decreased between 2015 and 2018 and only partly recovered in 2019.
According to United States authorities, the eastern Pacific route, by boat, in particular go-fast vessels or semi-submersibles, and, to a lesser extent, the Atlantic routes (western Caribbean and Caribbean routes), by go-fast vessels and aircraft, remain the main cocaine trafficking routes from Colombia to the north. According to reports by Member States, the bulk of cocaine trafficking via Central America takes place by sea, but recent trends in Guatemala show a decrease in the use of the sea route and an increase in air trafficking (from 4 per cent of all cocaine seized that entered Guatemala in 2017 to 20 per cent in 2018 and 30 per cent in 2019), primarily reflecting an increase in flights smuggling cocaine from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to Guatemala. The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela thus emerged as the second most important transit/departure country (25 per cent of the total) after Colombia (75 per cent) for the cocaine seized in Guatemala in 2019.
According to United States authorities, the main cocaine trafficking routes, the eastern Pacific route and the western Caribbean route, converge in Mexico, from where the drug enters the United States, mostly by land across the country’s south-western border. It is estimated that about 80 per cent of the cocaine found on the United States market in 2019 had transited Mexico. However, amounts seized on the south-western border point to an increase in cocaine trafficking via Mexico up to 2017, after which they point to a decrease, while the overall quantities of cocaine seized in the United States continued to rise. These trends suggest the emergence of alter-native cocaine trafficking routes, including shipments of the drug to seaports in the United States. In fact, the largest quantities of cocaine seized in the United States in 2019 were reported in seaports in Florida, followed by California (mostly along the south-western border with Mexico), Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico.
Nonetheless, Mexican criminal organizations continue to control much of the import of cocaine into the United States and wholesale cocaine trafficking within the country. For retail distribution, they rely on heavily, however, on local criminal groups and street gangs. According to United States authorities, Mexican criminal groups often procure multi-ton shipments of cocaine from drug traffickers in South America, most notably Colombian criminal groups, then move the drug through Central America and Mexico before smuggling it into the United States across the south-western border. By contrast, cocaine trafficking along the Caribbean route, primarily by sea and air, involves Dominican criminal groups, among others.
Patterns of cocaine trafficking into Mexico seem to have changed recently, from a situation in 2017 in which most cocaine was being smuggled by sea (mostly from Colombia) and land (from Guatemala) to a situation in 2019 in which the bulk (52 per cent) was reported to have entered the country by air.
Irrespective of the increase in the smuggling of cocaine by air in some countries in 2019 (notably Mexico and Guatemala), available data also suggest that most of the cocaine trafficked from the Andean countries to the United States continues to be seized at sea. This corresponds with reports showing that most cocaine seizures by United States authorities continue to be made at sea off the United States mainland. At the same time, there has been an increase in cocaine shipments by mail, which are estimated to account for 9 per cent of all cocaine imports into the United States (up from less than 5 per cent of the total in 2015), possibly an indication of the increasing number of transactions made over the dark web, which usually involve shipments by mail.
Most of the cocaine seized in the United States is intended for the domestic market, although some cocaine smuggled into the country is also intended for onward trafficking to other countries. Based on reports to UNODC of countries of origin, transit and destination of drugs seized between 2015 and 2019 by various countries, some cocaine shipments had also transited the United States before reaching other countries in North America (Canada), Asia (Indonesia, Japan and Republic of Korea), Oceania (Australia), Africa (South Africa) and Europe (Belgium, Ireland and Italy). The use of the United States as a transit country for cocaine shipments to Europe seems to be a rather recent phenomenon, however.
Elsewhere in North America, Canada has been identified as a transit country for cocaine destined for Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Mexico reported that about 4 per cent of the cocaine seized in 2018 had been destined for the Netherlands and 8 per cent of the cocaine seized in 2019 had been destined for China.
Moreover, over the period 2015–2019, countries in Asia (China and Indonesia), Oceania (Australia and New Zealand), Africa (Kenya) and Europe (Iceland) reported that cocaine had transited Mexico, among other countries, prior to arriving at their territories.
Over the past decade, trends in the retail purity of cocaine in the world’s two largest cocaine markets, the United States and Europe, have started to evolve in parallel. The retail purity of cocaine decreased after 2006 in both the United States and Europe. This was mainly a reflection of a decrease in cocaine manufacture in Colombia, before increasing again after 2013, which was likely a result of an increase in cocaine manufacture in the Andean countries, most notably Colombia. While the purity of cocaine on the United States market was traditionally substantially higher than in Europe, this has changed in recent years. Since 2012, the retail purity of cocaine has been almost identical in both markets and has moved in the same upward direction. In terms of absolute value, the purity of cocaine in Europe has caught up with cocaine purity in the United States, suggesting that the Atlantic Ocean is becoming less of a hurdle for traffickers than it used to be, at least when measured against the cocaine trafficking route from the Andean countries northward to the United States. Europe has thus become a more competitive consumer of cocaine, and the fact that the trend in Europe is in parallel with the trend in the United States suggests that the cocaine market in Europe is as responsive to changes at the source as the market in the United States.
While it can be argued that this convergence is the sign of an increasingly “unified” transatlantic cocaine market, the factors behind it are likely to be numerous. They include the emergence of “new” players among the transatlantic cocaine traffickers, such as organized crime groups from countries in South-Eastern Europe, as well as collaboration between lesser actors, resulting in increased competition and therefore an increase in the efficiency of cocaine trafficking to Europe. The supply chain has also changed, with a reduction in monopolies, both in terms of the cocaine manufacture chain in South America and in terms of transatlantic cocaine trafficking, which is now seeing new actors cutting out intermediaries. It is also possible that the world’s largest cocaine market, that of the United States, has reached saturation and/or that law enforcement activities along the trafficking routes to North America have contributed to the European market being considered the path of the least resistance and thus led to an increase in cocaine trafficking to Europe from South America.
Trend in cocaine retail purity, United States and Western and Central Europe, 2005–2018
The record quantities of cocaine intercepted in Europe in recent years have been driven, to a large extent, by seized consignments that reached Europe by sea, in particular in containerized freight in seaports, although seizures are also made at sea. Very large quantities of cocaine have been seized in the seaports of Antwerp, Belgium, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and, most recently, Hamburg, Germany, while large quantities have also been seized in Spanish and Italian seaports.
Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, preliminary data on seizures registered by customs authorities in 12 countries in Western and Central Europe (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Spain) indicate that the quantities of cocaine seized in seaports increased by 18 per cent in 2020 (from 118 tons to 140 tons).
The quantity of cocaine intercepted in the Port of Antwerp, in particular, has increased steadily in recent years, and has come to account for a significant share of the quantity of cocaine seized in all of Europe (28 per cent in 2019). Most of the cocaine that reaches Antwerp is most likely intended for criminal organizations operating out of the Netherlands, from where the cocaine is distributed to other European destinations.
As reported by media sources, 16 tons of cocaine shipped from Paraguay were seized at the Port of Hamburg in February 2021. An individual who was also responsible for another shipment of 7 tons seized in parallel at Antwerp was involved, which confirmed the centrality of criminal organizations based in the Netherlands with transnational connections in managing the import of cocaine into Europe.
Quantity of cocaine seized at the Port of Antwerp, Belgium, 2013–2020
The second-largest cocaine trafficking flow worldwide is that from the Andean countries to Europe, in particular to Western and Central Europe, the second-largest market for the drug after that of North America. The quantity of cocaine seized in Western and Central Europe more than doubled in the period 2015–2019, while prices remained stable and cocaine purity increased, suggesting an overall increase in the flow of cocaine to Western and Central Europe and in the availability of cocaine, despite a sharp increase in the quantities of the drug seized.
The main entry points for cocaine trafficked to Europe from South America include Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain. Forensic testing of cocaine samples from seizures of shipments smuggled to Western and Central Europe have confirmed that the cocaine trafficked to Europe primarily originates in Colombia (68 per cent) and, to a lesser extent, in Peru (19 per cent) and the Plurinational State of Bolivia (4 per cent).
Although the majority of the cocaine trafficked to Europe continues to originate in and depart from Colombia, Brazil is increasingly reported as a transit country from where cocaine shipments depart for Europe. The most frequently reported country of origin, departure and transit for shipments to Western and Central Europe over the period 2015–2019 was Colombia, followed by Brazil and Ecuador; between 2010 and 2014, the list was headed by Colombia, followed by Peru and then Brazil.
Some of the cocaine trafficked to Europe is also trafficked through transit regions, most notably West Africa and North Africa, as reflected by significant seizures of cocaine made in West Africa and Morocco in recent years.
Most of the cocaine available on European drug markets is smuggled to Europe by sea, primarily in maritime container shipments that enter Europe through major ports such as Antwerp, Belgium, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Hamburg, Germany, and Valencia, Spain. After entering Europe at these main distribution hubs, cocaine shipments are typically trafficked onward by road to destination markets in the region.
In recent years, a diversification of the criminal actors involved in managing the cocaine supply chain between South America and Europe has been observed. In the past, this illicit trade was dominated by a small number of well-established actors and channels, most notably Italian organized crime groups and alliances between Colombian and Spanish groups. Criminal groups such as the ’Ndrangheta(whose heartland is in the Italian region of Calabria) exercised a competitive advantage over other European trafficking organizations by means of their presence in Latin America and direct contacts with suppliers in or close to the countries where cocaine is manufactured.
For many years, the Netherlands has been an important staging post for several criminal organizations, including from the Netherlands itself, to receive shipments of cocaine from South America and dis-tribute the drug throughout Europe. However, in recent years, a number of other European groups have emerged as major players in orchestrating the shipment of significant quantities of cocaine to Europe, also by establishing their own presence and contacts in Latin America. To some extent, this may have been facilitated by an increasingly fragmented criminal landscape in Colombia in the aftermath of the demobilization of FARC-EP. The proliferation of smaller criminal and armed non-State groups, the absence of monolithic organizations controlling the various stages of the cocaine manufacture and trafficking chain and the increased compartmentalization of these activities, may have spawned new alliances and supply chains.
Some of the emergent networks, in particular Albanian networks, are also involved in the distribution of cocaine across Europe and within several European countries, enabling them to implement an “end-to-end” business model.
Groups composed of Serbo-Croat speakers, typically nationals of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia, have also become major players in the procurement of large quantities of cocaine and organizing transportation and sale to European buyers. This diversification has led to both increased competition and increasingly frequent instances of collaboration among different groups engaged in cocaine trafficking, resulting in a more efficient supply chain. Coupled with the high levels of coca bush cultivation and manufacture of cocaine in South America, it is likely that these developments have also contributed to the increased availability of cocaine in Europe.
Distribution of foreign nationals arrested in Europe in connection with individual cocaine seizures, by nationality, according to size of seizure, 2018–2020
Rising trafficking of cocaine from Brazil via Africa to Europe.
The overall quantity of cocaine seized in Africa increased from 1.2 tons in 2015 to 12.9 tons in 2019, a tenfold increase in five years. However, this amount was equivalent to 0.9 per cent of the global quantity of cocaine seized in 2019, which, in combination with the comparatively modest prevalence of cocaine use in the region, suggests that the continent may not be a major destination market for cocaine.
As there have been no reports of any significant strengthening of law enforcement capacity over the past five years, it is likely that the increase in the quantity of cocaine seized reflects actual growth in cocaine trafficking flows to and from Africa, most notably to and via West and Central Africa and North Africa, which accounted, respectively, for 54 and 39 per cent of the total quantity of cocaine seized in Africa in the period 2015–2019. This clearly underlines the dominance of these two subregions in cocaine trafficking affecting Africa.
Seizures of cocaine in transit to, within and departing Africa highlight the continent’s continued role in the global cocaine market. The main departure country for shipments to Africa seems to be Brazil, possibly owing to its trade infrastructure and linguistic links with some African countries. Over the period 2015–2019, Brazil was the country most frequently reported by African countries as a country of origin, departure or transit of cocaine shipments, accounting for 47 per cent of all such reports (excluding African departure and transit countries). By contrast, Colombia accounted for 16 per cent, Peru for 7 per cent, Mexico for 4 per cent and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela for 4 per cent.
This pattern of cocaine shipments primarily departing from Brazil, mostly by sea but also by air, for destinations in Africa for onward trafficking to other destinations in Africa, Europe (most notably Belgium, followed by (in decreasing order of mentions by Member States over the period 2015–2019) the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, France and Portugal) and partly to Asia and Oceania, has continued to be observed in the last two years.
Cocaine trafficking from Brazil to Africa.
A number of cocaine seizures made in Brazil in recent years were actually destined for Africa, typically as a trans-shipment location for onward trafficking to Europe, although some shipments were also destined to Africa via Europe. For example, in June 2019, 0.7 tons of cocaine were seized in a container in São Paulo that had been destined to be trafficked via Belgium to Ghana. In December 2020, 360 kg of cocaine were seized in a container in São Paulo that had been destined to be shipped via Spain to Nigeria. Direct shipments to Africa, however, are still more common. In November 2019, for example, 1.3 tons of cocaine were seized in São Paulo in two containers of sugar bags that had been destined to be shipped by boat to Morocco. Seizures of between 100 kg and 400 kg were also made in containers in São Paulo and the State of Santa Catarina that had been destined to be shipped to Côte d’Ivoire (May 2020), to Libya (May 2020) and to Nigeria (December 2020). Moreover, over the period 2019–2021, smaller quantities of cocaine (between 1 kg and 10 kg per trafficker) were trafficked by air to various countries in Africa, namely Angola, Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Seychelles and Sierra Leone.
In parallel, a number of significant seizures of cocaine that had departed from Brazil were made in Africa. For example, in January 2019, the authorities in South Africa seized 706 kg of cocaine in a container shipped by sea from Brazil, which was expected to transit South Africa then Singapore en route to its final destination, India. In June 2019, the authorities in Senegal seized 798 kg of cocaine inside 15 new cars onboard a ship travelling from Brazil to Angola. In December 2019, the authorities in Benin seized 755 kg of cocaine in a container on a ship in Benin that had originated in Brazil and was destined to transit the Niger before reaching its ultimate destination, Europe. In September 2018, according to media reports, 1.2 tons of cocaine were seized close to São Paulo at the port of Santos, Brazil, destined for the port of Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. Subsequent investigations seem to have revealed that the shipment was part of a larger scheme organized by Italian organized crime groups which, for this purpose, set up a fake construction company in Abidjan in order to be able to legally purchase secondhand equipment from Brazil in which the cocaine was hidden. The ultimate purchasers of the cocaine were allegedly the 'Ndrangheta and the Camorra in Italy. Despite the arrest of a number of people involved in these trafficking activities, including a number of Italians and citizens of Côte d’Ivoire, cocaine trafficking from Brazil to Côte d’Ivoire continued. In February 2020, authorities in Côte d’Ivoire confiscated 411 kg of cocaine in the country’s territorial waters from a ship that had departed from Brazil. Similarly, in April 2020, the Brazilian authorities seized 146 kg of cocaine at a seaport near São Paulo, destined for Côte d’Ivoire, although the final destination was likely to have been the port of Antwerp, Belgium.
In February 2020, the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency of Nigeria seized 43 kg of cocaine at Tin Can Island Port, Lagos, that had departed from Brazil. In November 2020, the Nigerian authorities seized 12 kg of cocaine en route from São Paulo to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and, in January 2021, they seized 27 kg of cocaine that had arrived by air from Brazil via Addis Ababa. Significant amounts of cocaine also departed Brazil for Guinea-Bissau. In March 2019, 0.8 tons of the drug, found in the false bottom of a truck loaded with frozen fish, were seized in Guinea-Bissau, apparently intended for subsequent shipment via Sahel countries to North Africa and Europe.
More than 1.8 tons were seized in September 2019; the trafficking operation involved nationals from Colombia, Guinea-Bissau and Mali. From Guinea-Bissau, cocaine may be trafficked by air to Lisbon, Portugal.
Cocaine trafficking from other South American countries to Africa.
Meanwhile, other South American departure countries continue to play a role and/or have been becoming increasingly involved in the shipment of cocaine to Africa. For example, in 2019, Colombian authorities seized 1.2 tons of cocaine in a container destined for Cabo Verde. In September 2019, the South African authorities seized 85 kg of cocaine in a container that had departed from Ecuador. In December 2019, Uruguayan law enforcement authorities seized more than 6 tons of cocaine destined for Togo. The previous record seizure in Uruguay was 3 tons of cocaine, found in a container in the Port of Montevideo in November 2019, which had also been destined for Africa, according to the media. In February 2020, 350 kg of cocaine were seized in Guyana, en route to Nigeria. In December 2020, 51 kg of cocaine were seized in Panama in a container destined for South Africa. A few months later, in February 2021, Côte d’Ivoire security forces seized more than 1 ton of cocaine that had been shipped to the country via Paraguay.
Cocaine trafficking from Africa to Europe.
In parallel, Benin appears to have emerged as a significant transit and departure country for cocaine shipments in Africa, partly due to the fact that Cotonou Airport was operational during much of the period in 2020 when airports in neighbouring countries were closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This has attracted drug traffickers from neighbouring countries, who continued to use Benin as a transshipment location even once airports in other countries in the region had reopened. During the last four months of 2020, 28 drug couriers (mostly smuggling cocaine) were intercepted in Cotonou, Brussels and Paris, having departed from or transited Benin. The majority of them had a Nigerian background but were holding European (mostly Italian) passports or residence cards; some were European passport holders without a Nigerian background.
Smugglers from other countries in the region were also identified. For example, in November 2020, a Ghanaian courier was arrested at Cotonou Airport in possession of 14 kg of cocaine, having acquired the cocaine in Brazil and smuggled it by air from Brazil via Addis Ababa to Benin.
Even more surprising is that a significant proportion of all the cocaine intercepted in Benin in 2020 had been smuggled via Antwerp, Belgium, in a container loaded with 557 kg of cashew nuts, which was seized in Benin in October 2020. This suggests that some cocaine is also trafficked from South America via Europe to Africa for subsequent re-export to Europe.
The quantity of cocaine seized in Asia in 2019 amounted to 19.1 tons, an almost fifteen-fold increase from the 1.3 tons reported in 2015. In the period 2015–2019, the largest quantities of cocaine seized in the region were seized in East and South-East Asia (79 per cent of the total), followed by the Near and Middle East and South-West Asia (14 per cent) and South Asia (7 per cent).
The bulk of the cocaine seized in Asia in 2019 was reported by Malaysia, which accounted for 80 per cent of the total quantity of cocaine seized in the region, followed by Hong Kong, China (8 per cent). However, most of the cocaine seized in Malaysia in 2019 was not destined for that country, but rather for Australia. It was related to a single shipment from Colombia that had travelled by sea via Ecuador and Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to Malaysia, where the cocaine was seized while in transit.
The largest quantities of cocaine seized in the Near and Middle East and South-West Asia in 2019 were reported by Saudi Arabia, followed by Pakistan and Lebanon, while the largest quantities of cocaine seized in South Asia were reported by India and those in Central Asia/Transcaucasia by Azerbaijan.
The most frequently reported countries of origin, departure and transit of cocaine shipments to countries in Asia in the period 2015–2019 were Brazil, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Nigeria, Qatar, Peru, South Africa, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, the Netherlands, Ethiopia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States.
Cocaine trafficking to Asia in the period 2015–2019 was mostly carried out by air. The only exceptions where most cocaine was brought into countries by ship were reported by Israel in 2016, by China in 2015, 2017 and 2019, by the Philippines in 2018 and by Malaysia in 2019.
Cocaine trafficking to Oceania remains profitable.
Despite the long trafficking routes and the number of geographically dispersed transit countries, the high price of cocaine in Australia and New Zealand makes cocaine smuggling to Oceania attractive to drug traffickers. Trafficking cocaine to Australia from otherwise typical final destination markets, such as North America and Western and Central Europe, therefore remains highly profitable for drug traffickers.
In the period 2015–2019, the most frequently reported countries of origin, departure and transit of cocaine seized in Oceania were Peru, followed by the Netherlands, the United States, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Canada, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Chile and Argentina.
In the fiscal year 2018/19, a total of 49 countries were identified by Australia alone as embarkation points for cocaine detected at the Australian border. They included countries in the Americas, Europe, Africa and Oceania. By weight of the cocaine detected, the key embarkation points were South Africa (for the first time ever), followed by Mexico, the United States, Fiji, France, Canada, the Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium and the United Kingdom.
In New Zealand, most of the cocaine seized in 2019 had departed from Ecuador (most likely having originated in Colombia), followed by Peru. The main transit countries for cocaine shipments to New Zealand in 2019 were Ecuador (63 per cent), followed by Argentina (12 per cent) and the United Arab Emirates (6 per cent).
Most of the cocaine intercepted in Australia and New Zealand has been shipped by sea. However, data for Australia also show a large number of small shipments trafficked by international mail, suggesting that cocaine may also be imported as a result of drug purchases made by end users over the darknet.
Drug profiling of cocaine seized at the Australian border indicated that about 70 per cent of the cocaine that entered the country in the first six months of 2019 had originated in Colombia and just 2 per cent in Peru; the remainder could not be classified. This reflects significant changes since 2013, when only 10 per cent of the cocaine analysed had originated in Colombia and 90 per cent had originated in Peru.
Cocaine interception rate in Australia.
Despite the recent decrease in the amount of cocaine seized in Australia, available data suggest that the interception rate of cocaine shipments in Australia is still high.
With a reported quantity of 4.64 tons of cocaine consumed in Australia in the fiscal year 2018/19 and 5.68 tons, on average, in 2019/20, based on the analysis of wastewater, it can be assumed that approximately 5.16 tons of pure cocaine were consumed in the country in 2019. The quantity of cocaine seized, not adjusted for purity, amounted to 1.43 tons in 2018, which would have been equivalent to 1.06 tons of pure cocaine, based on an average purity of 74 per cent at the wholesale level across jurisdictions in Australia. This suggests that 6.22 tons (5.16 tons plus 1.06 tons) of cocaine may have entered Australia in 2019, of which 1.06 tons, or 17 per cent, were intercepted by the authorities.